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Statistics problems (yep, you're right) (Mon Aug 27 06:50:50 2001 )
Jason Nolasco [View profile ]
http://www.rubberslug.com
jason@orchidflux.com

Sorry, this is long. If you like brain puzzlers, 
read on.

1) I used Wizard as an example. Bad example, for 
reasons which Tanaka points out.

2) This will likely be unsound. Statsitically, 
true. Practically, maybe not. Why? Even just a 
handful of opinions about cels from a specific 
show could give new folks a good foothold. For 
example, WebDeb's opinions on Escaflowne are 
priceless to the new Esca collector. Ranges will 
be large for both rarity and -- the bad word -- 
price. Amazon's user reviews are pretty 
statistically unsound, yet a lot of people use 
those short reviews to help them make decisions.

3) I'll avoiding price fixing right now by saying 
that RSlug is NOT the final word on rarity or 
anything. It's just a starter guide, but I'm sure 
you probably have heard "where can I find good 
cels from (xxx)" and "is this okay (link)?" more 
times than you can count.

3) I can't make two language sets without serious 
help. (I just want to say, as a programmer, I am 
extremely impressed with Anime Taro's site for 
doing so.) Plus, a lot of Japanese collectors 
would have to give opinions to be valid.

Art is priced based on art auctions and museum 
purchases, if I'm not mistaken. As cel 
collectors, we can determine how much we've spent 
on cels and how long we've been looking for 
certain things to get a VERY rough estimate. Art 
auctions are inflated. Our index will likely also 
be inflated, but we're expecting it to be. All 
opinions will be qualified by a short blurb. No 
one will be allowed to splurt out numbers without 
justification.

 ** The desired net result? **

Someone looking at our catalogue will be able to 
determine that BGC2040 is a bit easier to find 
than Escaflowne is a bit easier to find than 
Lodoss OVA -- in the US. We can't get too 
specific and/or generalize to world population 
because you're right, it *is* statistically 
unsound.

A confidence factor will be associated with each 
show. If a show has more opinions, confidence 
factor increases. I can't think of a fair way to 
do the exact math right now. If one of you can, 
then e-mail me. You're right about that too, most 
shows will have opinions from only a few people 
or none at all.

Finally, I will not give any opinions myself. I'd 
love to flesh out the db, but I'm sure it's going 
to come out that I'm making up stuff to fill my 
own db. I want to stay as neutral/fair as 
possible. I will start going through and listing 
all the series that are CG I can find though.

Tanaka, you could probably teach me a thing or 
two about statistics. (You seem like you know 
more about what you're talking about that I do) 
If you can think of a good way to achieve the 
goal -- a good starting point for cel 
availability -- then let me know. Until then, 
I'll be waiting patiently to take a look at your 
cel gallery. Don't forget, if you need any help 
from me, drop me a line.

Cheers,
Jason



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